Toxomerus watsoni confusion

I've noticed that many Toxomerus observations, especially in Mexico, are being identified as Toxomerus watsoni: https://www.inaturalist.org/observations?place_id=any&subview=grid&taxon_id=418205
However, I've tried looking through all the papers I can find, and can't find any way to separate T. watsoni from similar species like T. duplicatus without a microscope.

I put all the similar individuals like that with simple abdomen patterns under one observation field so I can compare them here: https://www.inaturalist.org/observations?field:Toxomerus%20identifiable%20group=T.%20cf.%20duplicatus

After doing this, I noticed that many of the individuals that are identified as T. watsoni look a bit different from unidentified individuals.
For example, these two are both males but they look different:
https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/8735045
https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/18581132

The one that is called "T. watsoni" has a thinner, tubular abdomen, the dark bands are mostly black, and the last abdomen segment has a different pattern.
The other one has a flat, wide, abdomen, the dark bands are lighter grey, and the last abdomen segment has just a black dot.
I see similar differences in females, although the abdomen structure is less different:
https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/18227103
https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/12283401

But I don't know if that's still not enough to identify them to species.

Other similar groups within the "T. cf. duplicatus" group

1. Ones identified as T. watsoni have a consistent look
2. Orange centre of abdomen sections, pair of commas, blue/silver between with black borders
3. Long thin abdomen

4. Orange bands, pairs of commas, shiny blue stripes with little or not black borders (thinner)
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/11915414
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/20805941
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/12283401

5. Orange or yellow bands, little or no commas, blue/shiny stripes with little or no black borders
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/19827828
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/11928637
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/17277614
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/484716

6. Orange or yellow bands, no commas, blue stripes with black borders
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/21087951
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/15864324
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/20510754
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/19625973

Most have dark ring near end of hind femur, but in some it's faint or not there.
Ones in Florida vary between groups 2 and 3: https://www.inaturalist.org/observations?place_id=21&subview=grid&field:Toxomerus%20identifiable%20group=T.%20cf.%20duplicatus
What species is this?

I've been trying to make a list of species that fall into the general group of simple band patterns: https://www.inaturalist.org/observation_fields/8909#activity_comment_1835840

T. brevifacies
T. buscki
T. corbis/planiventris?
T. difficilis
T. duplicatus
T. ecuadoreus
T. idalius
T. minutus?
T. norma
T. papaveroi
T. paraduplicatus
T. pinchinchae
T. productus
T. puellus
T. steatogaster
T. taenius
T. watsoni

Publicado el enero 10, 2019 11:34 TARDE por upupa-epops